Amerikaanse sportgeschiedenis

Gerelateerde afbeelding

Decennialang verlieten honkbalteams zich bij het uitkiezen van spelers op de wijsheid, ervaring en intuïtie van professionele scouts en managers. De beste spelers brachten miljoenen dollars op en uiteraard haalden rijke teams de krenten uit de pap, terwijl armere teams het met de restjes moesten doen. In 2002 besloot Billy Beane, de manager van de relatief arme Oakland Athletics, de strijd met het systeem aan te gaan. Hij gebruikte een obscuur computerprogramma dat was ontwikkeld door economen en computernerds om een winnend team samen te stellen met spelers die de menselijke scouts over het hoofd hadden gezien of te laag zakelijke energie vergelijken hadden ingeschaald. De oudgedienden waren woest
dat Beane het waagde de heilige tempel van het honkbal te bezoedelen met zijn algoritme. Volgens hen was het scouten van honkbalspelers een ware kunst, die alleen mensen met gedegen kennis en jarenlange ervaring meester konden worden. Een computerprogramma zou dat nooit kunnen, omdat het de geheimen en de ziel van het honkbal nooit zou kunnen ontcijferen. Al heel snel moesten ze hun honkbalpetjes opeten. Het algoritmische team van Beane, met zijn karige budget van 44 miljoen dollar, hield niet alleen stand tegen honkbalgiganten als de New York Yankees (125 miljoen dollar), maar werd ook het eerste team in de Amerikaanse sportgeschiedenis dat twintig wedstrijden achtereen won. Al snel stapten veel andere teams ook over op de algoritmische aanpak en aangezien de Yankees en de Red Sox een veel groter budget hadden voor spelers en computersoftware, kregen teams als de Oakland Athletics uiteindelijk een nóg kleinere kans om het systeem te slim af te zijn dan voorheen.14 In 2004 publiceerden professor Frank Levy van MIT en professor Richard Murnane van Harvard een diepgaand onderzoek over de banenmarkt, waarbij ze de beroepen aanwezen die waarschijnlijk zouden worden geautomatiseerd. Ze noemden vrachtwagenchauffeur als een beroep dat in de afzienbare toekomst niet geautomatiseerd zou kunnen worden. Het is moeilijk voorstelbaar, schreven ze, dat algoritmen veilig vrachtwagens over drukke zakelijke energie wegen zouden kunnen navigeren. Een kleine tien jaar later kunnen Google en Tesla zich dit niet alleen voorstellen, ze maken het zelfs waar.

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