Heuristieken en biases

De kansinschattingen van de respondenten correspondeerden, in zowel het Tom W.- als het Linda-vraagstuk, exact met inschattingen van representativiteit (de overeenkomstigheid met stereotypen). Representativiteit is onderdeel van een cluster van nauw aan elkaar gerelateerde inschattingen, die hoogstwaarschijnlijk gelijktijdig worden gevormd. De meest flexplek huren rotterdam representatieve uitkomsten worden met de karakterbeschrijvingen gecombineerd om een zo samenhangend mogelijk verhaal te vormen. De meest samenhangende verhalen zijn niet noodzakelijk de meest kansrijke, maar ze zijn wel aannemelijk, en als we niet oppassen, kunnen we de concepten van samenhang, aannemelijkheid en waarschijnlijkheid snel door elkaar halen. Het kritiekloze vervangen van waarschijnlijkheid door aannemelijkheid kan ons oordeel nadelig beïnvloeden als we scenario’s flexplek huren zwolle gebruiken als middel om voorspellingen te doen. Neem de volgende scenario’s, die aan verschillende groepen werden voorgelegd, samen met het verzoek om aan te geven hoe waarschijnlijk ze zijn:
Volgend jaar vindt er ergens in Noord-Amerika een enorme overstroming plaats waarbij meer dan duizend slachtof( e rs zullen vallen.
Volgend jaar vindt er in Californië een aardbeving plaats die een overstroming veroorzaakt waarbij meer dan duizend slachtoffers zullen vallen.
Het tweede, gedetailleerdere scenario is overduidelijk samenhangender en aannemelijker dan het eerste, hoewel de flexplek huren amsterdam kans op dit scenario kleiner is. Zoals verwacht werd het gedetailleerdere scenario’s een grotere kans toegedicht, in weerwil van de logica. Dit is een reële valkuil voor voorspellers en hun klanten: extra detail toevoegen aan scenario’s maakt ze overtuigender, maar minder waarschijnlijk. Ter illustratie van de rol van waarschijnlijkheid kunt u eens over de volgende vragen nadenken. Zijn ze lastig te beantwoorden?
De twee vragen hebben dezelfde logische structuur als het Linda-vraagstuk, maar leiden niet tot een misvatting, omdat de gedetailleerdere uitkomst alleen gedetailleerder is -ze is niet aannemelijker, samenhangender of interessanter. Kans en samenhang worden automatisch beoordeeld, maar flexplek huren arnhem deze oordelen reiken ons geen antwoord aan op de vragen. In de afwezigheid van conflicterende intuïtie zal de logica zegevieren.
Minder is méér, soms zelfs bij vergelijkingsevaluaties

594 gedachten over “Heuristieken en biases

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