Heuristieken en biases

Hetzelfde huis zal waardevoller lijken als de vraagprijs hoog is, zelfs al hebt u zich voorgenomen de invloed van dit bedrag te weerstaan. De lijst is eindeloos. Voor elke waarde die u in overweging moet nemen als mogelijke oplossing voor een inschattingsvraagstuk, zal flexplek huren rotterdam een referentieniveau worden gebruikt. We waren niet de eersten die dit effect waarnamen, maar ons experiment was wel de eerste demonstratie van het absurde karakter ervan: iemands oordeel wordt beïnvloed door een overduidelijk niet-gerelateerde waarde. Niemand zal het referentieniveau van de uitkomst van een rad van fortuin flexplek huren zwolle als redelijk durven beschouwen. Amos en ik publiceerden de uitkomsten van ons experiment in een artikel in Science en dit artikel is sindsdien een van de bekendste op dit gebied geworden. Er was echter één probleem: Amos en ik waren het niet geheel eens over de psychologische processen achter het effect. Amos neigde naar één interpretatie, ik naar een andere, en we hebben hierover nooit overeenstemming kunnen bereiken. De kwestie werd uiteindelijk tientallen jaren later opgelost door de inspanningen van andere onderzoekers, en zowel Amos als ik bleek gelijk te hebben. Er zijn twee verschillende mechanismen die het effect teweegbrengen – één voor elk systeem. Er is een vorm van referentie die plaatsvindt in een weloverwogen proces van aanpassing, een flexplek huren amsterdam functie van Systeem 2, en een vorm van referentie die als primingeffect plaatsvindt, een automatisch proces van Systeem r.
Referentie als aanpassing Amos hing het idee aan van een aanpassen-en-refereren-heuristiek als strategie voor het inschatten van onzekere hoeveelheden: begin met een referentieniveau, schat in of dit niveau te hoog of te laag is en pas de inschatting geleidelijk aan door het referentieniveau mentaal te ‘verplaatsen’. De aanpassing zal meestal vroegtijdig worden afgebroken, aangezien mensen er op een gegeven moment niet meer zeker van zijn of ze hun inschatting verder moeten aanpassen. Enkele tientallen jaren na ons meningsverschil, en jaren na Amos’ overlijden, werd overtuigend bewijs voor een dergelijk proces geleverd. Dit werd flexplek huren arnhem gedaan door twee verschillende psychologen, die in het begin van hun carrière nauw met Amos hadden samengewerkt: Eldar Shafir en Tom Gilovich, samen met hun eigen studenten – Amos’ intellectuele kleinkinderen!

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