Wiskundige kansberekening

Gerelateerde afbeelding

Deze vraag komt neer op een wiskundige kansberekening: de kans dat de baviaan van de honger zal omkomen als hij de bananen niet krijgt tegenover de waarschijnlijkheid dat de leeuw de baviaan zal pakken. Om dit probleem op te lossen moet de baviaan een hele berg gegevens doorwerken. Hoe ver ben ik van de bananen? Hoe ver is de leeuw? Hoe hard kan ik lopen? Hoe hard kan de leeuw lopen? Is de leeuw wakker of slaapt hij? Ziet de leeuw er hongerig uit of niet? Hoeveel bananen zijn er? Zijn ze groot of klein? Groen of rijp? Naast die externe gegevens moet de baviaan ook rekening houden met informatie over zijn eigen lichamelijke gesteldheid. Als hij uitgehongerd is, heeft het zin om alles te riskeren voor die bananen, wat voor kansen hij ook heeft. Maar als hij net heeft gegeten en de bananen hoogstens een extraatje zouden zijn, waarom zou hij het risico dan nemen? Om al die variabelen en waarschijnlijkheden tegen elkaar af te wegen heeft de baviaan veel complexere algoritmen nodig dan de conference room rotterdam algoritmen waarmee de koffieautomaat werkt. De beloning voor een correcte berekening is tegelijk ook veel groter. De beloning is niets meer of minder dan het overleven van de baviaan. Een angstig aangelegde baviaan -eentje met algoritmen die gevaren overschatten -zal verhongeren en de genen waaruit die bangelijke algoritmen zijn voortgekomen zullen samen met hem sterven. Een overmoedige baviaan – eentje met algoritmen die gevaren onderschatten -zal ten prooi vallen aan de leeuw en zijn roekeloze genen zullen de volgende generatie ook niet halen. Deze algoritmen ondergaan een constante kwaliteitscontrole door natuurlijke selectie. Alleen dieren die een correcte kansberekening kunnen maken, zullen nakomelingen nalaten. Maar dit is allemaal wel heel abstract. Hoe berekent een baviaan zijn kansen precies? Het is nou niet bepaald zo dat hij een potlood achter zijn oor vandaan tovert, een opschrijfboekje uit zijn achterzak trekt en hardloopsnelheden en energieniveaus gaat zitten conference room amsterdam uitpuzzelen met een rekenmachine. In wezen is de baviaan zelf de rekenmachine. Wat wij sensaties en emoties noemen, zijn in feite algoritmen.

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